I Used to Overcomplicate Everything

When I first started trading NQ, I had like 15 different setups I was trying to trade. Each one had different rules, different indicators, different everything. My brain was fried by 10am every day.

Know what my win rate was? About 38%. Terrible.

Now I only trade 3 setups. That's it. My win rate is around 58% and I actually enjoy trading again. Let me break down exactly what I do.

Setup #1: VWAP Bounce (My Bread and Butter)

When I Trade It: First 2 hours after market open (9:30-11:30am ET)

What I'm Looking For:

Entry: I enter on the close of the second green candle above VWAP (for longs). For shorts, it's the opposite - second red candle below VWAP.

Stop Loss: 12-15 points below the VWAP on NQ. Sometimes I tighten it to 10 points if I get really good entry.

Target: Usually 20-25 points. Sometimes I'll trail my stop if it's running really well, but I usually just take my profit and be done.

Why It Works: VWAP is where institutions and algos are watching. It's like a magnet for price during trending days. When you combine it with volume confirmation and previous structure, the odds are in your favor.

When I Don't Trade It:

Setup #2: Opening Range Breakout

When I Trade It: 10:00-10:30am ET (after the initial chaos settles)

What I'm Looking For:

Entry: I enter on a retest of the broken level. So if we break above the opening range high, I wait for price to come back and test it as support, then I go long.

Most people enter on the breakout itself and get faked out. The retest entry keeps me out of a lot of false breakouts.

Stop Loss: Back inside the opening range, usually 15-20 points.

Target: I'm looking for at least a 1:2 risk/reward. So if I'm risking 15 points, I want 30 points minimum.

Why It Works: The opening range captures where the market found equilibrium in the first 30 minutes. A break of that range usually means we're trending for the day. But you gotta wait for the retest - that's the key.

When I Don't Trade It:

Setup #3: Previous Day High/Low Rejection

When I Trade It: Anytime, but works best in the first hour

What I'm Looking For:

Entry: On the close of the second candle after the rejection. I used to enter immediately on the rejection candle but got stopped out too much.

Stop Loss: Just beyond the previous day high/low, usually 10-15 points.

Target: Back to VWAP or the middle of the day's range. Usually 25-35 points.

Why It Works: Previous day high/low are major psychological levels. When price can't break through them, you often get a strong move in the opposite direction. It's basically trading failed breakouts.

When I Don't Trade It:

What About All the Other Setups?

Yeah, there are hundreds of other strategies out there. Fibonacci retracements, Elliot Wave, harmonic patterns, divergences, whatever.

I'm not saying they don't work. I'm saying they don't work for ME.

The best strategy is the one you can execute consistently, understand completely, and actually make money with. These three setups tick all those boxes for me.

My Rules for All Three Setups

No matter which setup I'm trading, these rules apply:

The Honest Truth About Simple Strategies

Simple doesn't mean easy. These three setups took months to master. I still mess them up sometimes.

But they're repeatable. I can backtest them. I can identify them in real-time. And most importantly, I can actually execute them without my brain exploding.

If you're struggling with too many setups, try this: Pick ONE setup. Trade only that setup for 30 days. Master it completely. Then, if you want, add one more.

I guarantee you'll make more money with 1-3 solid setups than with 15 mediocre ones.

And hey, if you want to read more about how I started trading NQ, check out my post about my first 90 days trading NQ futures. It's full of embarrassing mistakes and hard-learned lessons.